Tuesday 15 April 2014

Trade Alert on NZD/USD: Be prepared to go short.

NZD/USD is showing serious signs of weakness on both the monthly, weekly and daily chart. When a currency pair gives so much positive signals on those time frame, it's almost a sure bet that it will
happen. So, lets see the technical analysis of the monthly chart and see what signals it is giving us.
NZDUSD monthly chart technical analysis
On the nzdusd chart above, you will see that the bulls met a strong resistance at  0.86753 which is the highest price level they have reached since 1st April 2013 (indicated on the chart as highest and test). The failure of the bulls to close above that price level (0.86753) signalled a trend reversal. On the other side, if the current candle stick should close above 0.86753 price level, the price will move further up to 0.88006 price level were the bulls are likely to meet a very stiff resistance (0.88006 is the highest closing price the bulls have reached since July 1st 2011).
NZDUSD weekly chart technical analysis


On the weekly chart above, you will see that candle stick B tried to break and close above 0.86958 price level (the highest the bulls have reached on the weekly chart since march 23 rd 2014) but ended up closing below it. The failure of the bulls to close above that strong resistance level on the weekly chart gives weight to what the monthly chart has signalled "a trend reversal"
NZDUSD daily chart technical analysis

On the daily chart, you will see signs of weakness on the nzd/usd currency pair that signals a bearish trend is about to start. On the chart above, you will see candle stick ABC and D all piecing through and closing above the bollinger band upper band and making a higher high in the process. That is another sign of weakness on nzd/usd currency pair that gives credence to what the monthly and weekly chart have been signalling.
So, when the trend line as shown on the chart above gets broken, then we go short. Take profit should be put at 0.82766 or 0.80930.

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